Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle
نویسنده
چکیده
Credit constraints that link a private agent’s debt to market-determined prices embody a credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and constrained socially optimal equilibria, inducing private agents to “overborrow.” The externality arises because agents fail to internalize the price effects of additional borrowing when the credit constraint binds. We quantify the effects of this inefficiency in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy calibrated to emerging markets. The credit externality increases the probability of financial crises by a factor of 7 and causes the maximum drop in consumption to increase by 10 percentage points.
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